How math can help you close offers

Figuring out how much $$ to ask for doesn’t have to be hard.

Consider doing this:

1. Create a model of the base case, i.e. the world where the person who wants to hire you, doesn’t hire you. Calculate the expected value of that world based on the value of the outcome * the probability of achieving that outcome.
2. Create a model of the alternative case, i.e. the world where the person who wants to hire you, does hire you. Calculate the expected value of that world based on the value of the outcome * the probability of achieving that outcome.
3. -1. = the value of working with you.

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Offer to split that value equally so both you and the other party gain from the transaction.

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Sometimes, you don’t have all the information so you need to make assumptions and/or ask questions before you can create the model, but this approach is still my favorite way to approach orgs & sell myself or a product I’m working on.

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Here's an xample of how I’ve done this in the past in a sales process with a venture fund that is trying to raise money below.

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